Background
The increasing speed of
climate change and its effects on people's lives have become a major topic of
discussion in recent years. While the extent of climate change and its impacts
across different times and places can be debated, there is general agreement
that poorer countries will suffer more, despite contributing less to the
problem. In fact, The Independent (UK, May 9, 2007) suggests that the gap
between rich and poor nations will likely worsen due to the effects of climate
change. Since it’s now understood that human activities, especially in
wealthier nations, have played a big role in speeding up climate change, making
positive changes to those activities might slow it down a bit. However, future climate
change is expected to occur more rapidly than it has in the past or present.
Climate change and its
consequences
The earth's atmosphere
works like a greenhouse. Greenhouse gases, which include water vapor, carbon
dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), halocarbons, and nitrous oxide (N2O), trap some
of the sun's energy and help regulate the earth's temperature. Without this
natural greenhouse effect, the earth's average temperature would not be the
current +15°C but would drop to -18°C, making life impossible.
Though it's known that
the earth's climate has always been changing, human activities—like modern
lifestyles, gas emissions from cars and industries, burning fossil fuels, and
cutting down forests—have raised the levels of greenhouse gases to dangerous levels.
This has caused climate change to speed up much faster than at any time in the
last 10,000 years. Over the past century, global temperatures have risen by 0.3
to 0.6°C, with most of the increase happening in the last 40 years. If no
global action is taken, scientists predict that the average temperature could
rise by 1.4 to 5.8°C in the next 100 years, leading to more severe consequences
than any natural disasters recorded in the past 100,000 years (NRCS, 1995).
The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) forecasts that while some places like Canada,
northern Europe, and parts of the Soviet Union may benefit from higher crop
productivity due to climate change, regions like sub-Saharan Africa, southern
Europe, and southern Asia could see significant drops in crop production. The
IPCC also notes that while the exact impacts and speed of climate change may
vary by region, it's generally agreed that: (a) higher global temperatures will
change rainfall patterns, lead to extreme weather, and may raise sea levels,
threatening freshwater supplies; (b) sensitive ecosystems, such as mountain
plants and animals, could be affected; (c) farming, fishing, and forestry could
be disrupted; and (d) human health and animal habitats may be harmed either
directly or indirectly.
Agriculture and Climate
Change
Agriculture contributes
to the release of greenhouse gases, which can add to the rising temperatures.
However, agriculture can also help reduce climate change by playing a positive
role (IISD & IES, March 1997). Better land management practices can act as
natural sinks for greenhouse gases. A warmer climate can offer both
opportunities and challenges for agriculture. Longer growing seasons and warmer
temperatures could allow for the cultivation of new crops and more diverse
farming. On the other hand, a hotter climate may also bring more extreme
weather, pests, and soil erosion.
Adapting to climate
change is important for the long-term sustainability of agriculture. As
mentioned earlier, countries in temperate and polar regions might benefit from
rising temperatures, as it could improve their agricultural productivity.
However, countries in tropical and subtropical areas are likely to face more
challenges.
Climate Change and
Agriculture in Nepal
It's remarkable that
within just 200 km from north to south, Nepal's climate ranges from arctic to
tropical. The country experiences four main seasons: spring, summer, autumn,
and winter. The average yearly temperature is about 15°C, rising from north to
south, with some exceptions in the valleys. Nepal's average annual rainfall is
around 1800 mm, but due to its diverse terrain, it varies significantly—from
over 5000 mm in the south to less than 250 mm in the north. This uneven
distribution of rainfall is a concern, as it contributes to floods, landslides,
and other extreme events, especially during the monsoon season when heavy
rainfall coincides with snowmelt in the mountains.
Agriculture employs
about 65% of Nepal's population, but because it is mainly subsistence farming,
it only contributes about 38% to the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Since Nepal's economy is heavily dependent on tourism and agriculture, it is
particularly vulnerable to changes in the climate. Hydropower, which is the
primary source of electricity and has great growth potential, is also at risk
due to climate change, especially from glacier lake outbursts. Nepal could face
climate change impacts in several areas, including hydropower, irrigation,
domestic water supply, and natural disasters. According to research by the
Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Nepal's average temperature is rising
by about 0.06°C each year. However, the temperature in the Himalayas is
increasing at an even faster pace, which could have serious consequences for the
country's glacial lakes. While no clear trends in overall precipitation have
been established, there is evidence of more intense rainfall events. Glacial
lake outbursts could damage hydropower projects and trigger floods and
landslides. At the same time, glacier retreats have been observed, which could
reduce water flow during the dry season. As a result of climate change and
rising temperatures, Nepal could face drier periods during dry seasons and
heavier monsoon rains, potentially up to three times the current rainfall,
leading to floods and landslides that would affect agriculture and livelihoods
(Alan M, Regmi B.R., 2005).
Around 80% of Nepal's
water is used for irrigation. Studies on rice production suggest that with a
4°C temperature increase and 20% more precipitation, rice yields might increase
slightly (by 0.09 to 5.5%), but beyond that, yields would start to decline. For
maize, rising temperatures would reduce yields, while results for wheat were
mixed. Changes in temperature and precipitation will also affect the water
cycle and resources. As Nepal’s agricultural sector is highly dependent on
weather, these changes could have severe effects. Glacier retreats, combined
with higher temperatures, increased evaporation, reduced soil moisture, and less
winter precipitation, could lead to droughts from November to April. Low
rainfall during key phases of crop development could drastically reduce crop
yields and livestock numbers and productivity.
In addition, less
precipitation and reduced moisture availability would negatively impact
grasslands, fodder, and forage production, while heat stress would lower
livestock productivity. Although these challenges could be mitigated by
investing in irrigation systems or importing more food, Nepal's limited resources
may make these solutions difficult to implement. On the other hand, heavy
monsoon rains combined with snowmelt in the mountains could cause floods during
the rainy season, damaging not only agriculture and livestock but also the
livelihoods of many people. This could lead to lower crop yields and reduced
livestock productivity, which, without sufficient imports, could threaten food
security in Nepal (Alan M, Regmi B.R., 2005).
Technology and Policy
options
The tenth plan includes
some emergency measures, such as building emergency shelters and providing
housing for families affected by disasters. However, considering the
significant impact of climate change, policies are also needed to both slow
down climate change and help people adapt to its effects (Alan M, Regmi B.R.,
2005). As discussed earlier in this paper, actions must be taken to reduce the
amount and rate of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. Policies could
include environmental taxes on nitrogen fertilizers, promoting better timing for
applying fertilizers and manure, developing rice varieties that emit less
methane, improving livestock feed quality, enhancing livestock waste
management, and expanding agroforestry practices.
On the adaptation side,
strategies could involve breeding crops, vegetables, livestock, and fish that
are more tolerant to higher temperatures, creating affordable water
conservation technologies, developing early warning systems for droughts and
floods, preparing relief and rehabilitation plans, and implementing land-use
systems that stabilize slopes to reduce the risks of soil erosion and
landslides. Additionally, building livestock shelters and food storage
facilities could help lessen the impact of extreme weather conditions on
agriculture and people's livelihoods (IISD & IES, 1997).
Conclusions and
Recommendations
Human activities have
combined with natural climate change, making its rapid progression unavoidable.
However, with serious preparation and actions starting now, we can hopefully
slow down this process and gradually adapt to the fast-changing climate. In the
context of agriculture, efforts should focus on reducing its contribution to
climate change by cutting greenhouse gas emissions, as well as taking steps to
mitigate and adapt to climate impacts. Institutional actions are also needed to
improve national preparedness, ensuring that vulnerable low-income groups
remain food secure. Agricultural development should not only aim to increase
productivity but also prioritize diversity and resilience in the sector.
REFERENCES
1. The Independent, May
9, 2007, page 1, column 2.
2. Alan M, Regmi B.R.,
2005, Adverse Impacts of Climate Change on Development of Nepal: Integrating
Adaptation into Policies and Activities, Capacity Strengthening of Least
Developed Countries for Adaptation to Climate Change (CLACC).
3. International
Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) and the Institute for
Environmental Studies (IES), March 1997, Agriculture and Climate Change: A
Prairie Perspective, University of Toronto.
4. Natural Resources
Conservation Service (NRCS), October 1995, Agriculture and Climate Change, RCA
Issue Brief # 3, United States Department of Agriculture.